Department of Medicine Grand Rounds: Modeling Pandemic Surge and Leading in Times of Crisis - Shared screen with speaker view
Mark Haas
Feel free to send any questions through the chat
Karen Freund
eeds code is 79hwan
Harrison Farber
Can we separate out the effect of age alone or the fact that older individuals tend to have more co-morbidities?
Rachel Buchsbaum
How do we know an accurate R0 without knowing the full extent of the infected but asymptomatic population?
Mark Haas
feel free to send questions through this chat
Craig Gordon
Is Tufts/Hallmark developing contact tracing capabilities in addition to those being developed for the state by Partners in Health? May be more specific to identifying contacts who might eventually become our future patients.
Dan Chandler
I thought the "Suffolk" county on the Johns Hopkins site is on Long Island, not Boston's Suffolk county.
cody meissner
John, do models consider the possibility that positive people are not the same in terms of infectivity? That is, is an asymptomatically positive contact person likely to spread the virus equally as a positive contact who is symptomatic? For example, super-shedders of MERS likely were responsible for much of the transmission. Cody
lesley inker
Is there any data on the recent positive cases? ie are they mostly from NH or other high risk places?
Josh Cohen
@Lesley - From the MA Dashboard yesterday - Residents/HealthcareWorkers of Long-Term Care Facilities with COVID-19: 12,127 of 62,205 total for MA. Fatalities - 2,101 of 3,562. Josh Cohen
lesley inker
To Josh, I believe this is total cases - and doesn't tell us the change in the source f infection overtime, which could tell us about he impact of social distancing and mask wearing
Josh Cohen
True - By looking at the changes from day-to-day, you can begin to see trends in the source of infections. The detailed dashboard goes back only to April 20 I believe. I have not looked at how the contribution of LTC facilities to case counts has changed. But there is a hint that the contribution of these facilities to deaths is increasing. They are particularly high over the last couple of days. Of course, these figures are short term. And for cases - the results depend on who is getting tested. A lot of infected cases are undocumented.
lesley inker
We have talked so far about health related to COVID, as have all of the models. There are other implications on health, as we have heard about recently regarding appendicitis, MI etc. Has any of the modeling consider non COVID related deaths but in fact are due to lack of care in the cOVID era? How is Tufts considering this issue as we move into the next phase?